I know this is an old episode but I just wanted to point out that if the pretest probability for a retinal detachment is 14% and the sign "change in visual acuity" has a positive likelihood ratio of 5 then the post-test probability is actually around 45%.
The paper "Simplifying Likelihood Ratios" from the journal of General Internal Medicine 2002 provides an excellent, very easy to use method for calculating post-test probability in your head from a likelihood ratio and pretest probability that I highly recommend.
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Matt K. - August 25, 2016 11:30 AM
I know this is an old episode but I just wanted to point out that if the pretest probability for a retinal detachment is 14% and the sign "change in visual acuity" has a positive likelihood ratio of 5 then the post-test probability is actually around 45%.
The paper "Simplifying Likelihood Ratios" from the journal of General Internal Medicine 2002 provides an excellent, very easy to use method for calculating post-test probability in your head from a likelihood ratio and pretest probability that I highly recommend.